Logo

Announcements

Monthly Economic Report



Table 12 : Rupee per unit of foreign currency*
US dollar Pound sterling Japanese yen Euro
March 2013** 54.4046 82.0190 0.5744 70.5951
March 2014 61.0140 101.4083 0.5965 84.3621
March 2015 62.4498 93.4422 0.5190 67.5548
March 2016 67.0581 95.3894 0.5935 74.4543
2015-16
April 2015 62.7532 93.9083 0.5253 67.7934
June-2015 22660 356.0 328 3.5
May 2015 63.8003 98.8205 0.5283 71.2135
June 2015 63.8607 99.3620 0.5165 71.5874
July 2015 63.6350 99.0771 0.5161 70.0292
August 2015 65.0723 101.4870 0.5287 72.5145
September 2015 66.2178 101.6029 0.5515 74.3909
October 2015 65.0580 99.7563 0.5419 73.0629
November 2015 66.1171 100.6188 0.5401 71.0917
December 2015 66.5955 99.9353 0.5468 72.4567
2016-17
April 2016 66.4695 95.2721 0.6070 75.4092
May 2016 66.9067 97.2485 0.6148 75.6918
June 2016 67.2969 95.5533 0.6389 75.5728
July 2016 67.2076 88.5198 0.6449 74.3591
August 2016 66.9396 87.7976 0.6606 75.0042
September 2016 66.7377 87.7152 0.6549 74.8257
October 2016 66.7481 82.5534 0.6438 73.6340
November 2016 67.6381 84.0243 0.6262 73.1418
December 2016 67.9004 84.7352 0.5854 71.5980
Source: Reserve Bank of India. * FEDAI Indicative Market Rates (on monthly average basis). ** Data from March, 2013 onwards are based on RBI’s reference rate.


Table 13: Balance of Payments (US $ billion)
2014-15 2015-16 2015-16 2016-17
(April-March) H1 H1
Exports, f.o.b 316.5 266.4 135.6 134
Imports, c.i.f 461.5 396.4 206.9 183.5
Trade balance -144.9 -130.1 -71.3 -49.5
Net services 76.5 69.7 35.6 32
Invisibles (net) 118.1 107.9 56.7 45.7
Current A/C Balance -26.9 -22.2 -14.7 -3.7
Capital/Finance A/C of Which
Foreign Investment (net) 73.5 31.9 13 29.4
FDI (net) 31.3 36 16.5 21.3
Portfolio (net) 42.2 -4.1 -3.5 8.2
Non-Resident Deposits (net) 14.1 16.1 10.1 3.5
Other capital flows (net) -2.5 -4.8 3.3 -9.5
Total Capital A/C (net) 88.3 40.1 25.3 19.2
Reserve Movement (-increase) and (+ decrease) -61.4 -17.9 -10.6 -15.5
Memo Items/Assumptions
Trade balance/GDP(%) -7.1 -6.3 -7.1 -4.6
Current Account Balance/GDP (%) -1.3 -1.1 -1.5 -0.3
Net Capital Flows/GDP (%) 4.3 1.9 2.5 1.8
Source: Reserve Bank of India


Table 14: External Assistance and Debt Service Payments (₹crore)*
Dec.-2015 2015-16
(Apr.-Dec.)		 Dec.-2016 2016-17
(Apr.-Dec.)
External Assistance (Government Account)
1) Gross Disbursement 4,514.0 21,771.5 4,346.6 28,127.9
2) Repayments 3,224.7 17,061.7 3,605.6 19,516.2
3) Interest Payments 468.9 2,687.2 590.3 3,623.5
4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 1,289.3 4,709.9 741.1 8,611.7
5) Net Transfers (4-3) 820.4 2,022.7 150.7 4,988.2
External Assistance (Non-Government Account)
1) Gross Disbursement 678.8 4079.5 0.0 2268.8
2) Repayments 990.2 3039.2 157.4 2930.5
3) Interest Payments 115.2 381.4 20.0 351.8
4) Net Disbursement (1-2) -311.4 1040.3 -157.4 -661.7
5) Net Transfers (4-3) -426.6 658.9 -177.3 -1013.5
Government Grants
1) Gross Disbursement 858.8 2095.3 346.5 883.8
2) Repayments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total Capital A/C (net) 88.3 40.1 25.3 19.2
3) Interest Payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 858.8 2095.3 346.5 883.8
5) Net Transfers (4-3) 858.8 2095.3 346.5 883.8
Non-Government Grants
1) Gross Disbursement 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2) Repayments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
3) Interest Payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
5) Net Transfers (4-3) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Grand Total
1) Gross Disbursements 6051.6 27995.0 4693.1 31280.6
2) Repayments 4214.9 20100.8 3762.9 22446.7
2) Repayments 4214.9 20100.8 3762.9 22446.7
3) Interest Payments 584.1 3068.6 610.3 3975.4
4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 1836.7 7894.2 930.2 8833.9
5) Net Transfers (4-3) 1252.6 4825.7 319.8 4858.5
*: Data are provisional. Source: Office of the Controller of Aid, Accounts and Audit, Ministry of Finance


Table 15: Year-on-Year global inflation for major groups/sub-groups (in per cent)
December 2015 October 2016 November 2016 December 2016
Energy -39.1 6.7 7.7 43.0
Non-energy -16.3 2.0 8.3 9.7
Agriculture -11.8 3.1 5.0 4.7
Beverages -6.1 1.9 0.2 -6.3
Food -15.3 6.0 8.3 8.2
Raw Materials -4.9 -3.5 -0.5 1.8
Fertilizers -11.0 -23.4 -21.8 -19.2
Metals & Minerals -28.4 3.1 23.6 30.4
Precious Metals -11.4 9.4 14.9 9.0
Source: World Bank


Table 16: Year-on-Year inflation based on WPI and CPI’s (in per cent)
WPI CPI-IW CPI-AL CPI-RL CPI
(NS-Combined)
Base : 2004-05 2001 1986-87 1986-87 2012
2014-15 2.0 6.3 6.6 6.9 5.9
2015-16 -2.5 5.6 4.4 4.6 4.9
2014-15 2.0 6.3 6.6 6.9 5.9
2015-16 (Apr-Dec) -3.0 5.6 4.2 4.4 4.8
2016-17 (Apr-Dec) 2.9 - - - 4.8
Dec-2015 -1.1 6.3 5.7 5.8 5.6
2016-17 (Apr-Dec) 2.9 - - - 4.8
Jan-2016 -1.1 5.9 5.6 5.7 5.7
Feb-2016 -0.9 5.5 5.0 5.3 5.3
Mar-2016 -0.5 5.5 5.0 5.1 4.8
Apr-2016 0.8 5.9 5.3 5.6 5.5
May-2016 1.2 6.6 6.0 6.1 5.8
June-2016 2.1 6.1 6.0 6.1 5.8
July-2016 3.7 6.5 6.7 6.5 6.1
Aug-2016 3.9 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.0
Sep-2016 3.8 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.4
Oct-2016 3.8 3.3 3.2 3.3 4.2
Nov-2016 3.2 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.6
Dec-2016 3.4 - - - 3.4
Note: WPI inflation for last two months and CPI (New Series-Combined) inflation for last one month are provisional.
Source: Office of Economic Adviser- DIPP, Labour Bureau and Central Statistics Office.


Table 17: Fiscal Indicators- Rolling Targets as Percentage of GDP
(at current market prices)
Revised
Estimates		 Budget
Estimates l		 Targets for
2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20
Gross Tax Revenue 11.3 11.3 11.6 11.9
Total outstanding liabilities at the end
of the year		 46.7 44.7 42.8 40.9
Revenue Deficit 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.4
Effective Revenue Deficit 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.2
Fiscal Deficit 3.5 3.2 3.0 3.0
Notes:
1. The ratio to GDP at current market prices are based on the CSO’s National Accounts 2011-12 Series.
2. “Total outstanding liabilities” include external public debt at current exchange rates. For projections, constant exchange rates have been assumed.
Liabilities do not include part of NSSF and total MSS liabilities which are not used for Central Government deficit.
Source: RBI


Table 18: Trends in Central Government Finances : April-December 2016-17
Items Budget
Estimates
2016-17
(Rs. Crore)		 April-December Growth
(April-
Dec.)
2015-16
(Per cent)		 Growth
(April-
Dec.)
2016-17
(Per cent)
2015-16
(Rs Crore)		 2016-17
(Rs. Crore)
1 2 3 4 5 6
1.Revenue Receipts 1377022 803808 934566 15.9 16.3
Gross tax revenue⃰ 1630888 963229 1139087 21.1 18.3
Tax (net to Centre) 1054101 622247 752116 14.0 20.9
Non Tax Revenue 322921 181561 182450 22.6 0.5
2.Capital Receipts
of which		 601038 510189 535182 -6.0 4.9
Recovery of loans 10634 9138 10403 10.3 13.8
Other Receipts 56500 12866 23529 559.1 82.9
Borrowings and other liabilities 533904 488185 501250 -8.3 2.7
3.Total Receipts (1+2) 1978060 1313997 1469748 6.3 11.9
4.Non-Plan Expenditure
(a)+(b)		 1428050 968019 1059530 9.5 9.5
(a) Revenue Account
of which:		 1327408 895386 987775 10.1 10.3
Interest payments 492670 302298 325684 9.8 7.7
Major Subsidies 231782 208759 214320 -1.7 2.7
Pensions 123368 69467 93394 2.0 34.4
(b) Capital Account 100642 72633 71755 3.0 -1.2
5.Plan Expenditure (i)+(ii) 550010 345978 410218 -1.9 18.6
(i) Revenue Account 403628 230656 301087 -18.3 30.5
(ii) Capital Account 146382 115322 109131 63.9 -5.4
6.Total Expenditure
(4)+(5)=(a)+(b)		 1978060 1313997 1469748 6.3 11.9
(a)Revenue Expenditure 1731036 1126042 1288862 2.8 14.5
(b)Of which Grants for creation of
Capital Assets		 166840 92788 125523 -5.2 35.3
7.Revenue Deficit 354014 322234 354296 -19.8 9.9
8.Effective Revenue Deficit (7-6(b)) 187174 229446 228773 -24.5 -0.3
9.Fiscal Deficit 533904 488185 501250 -8.3 2.7
10.Primary Deficit 41234 185887 175566 -27.7 -5.6
Source: Controller Genral of Accounts, *: Gross Tax Revenue is prior to devolution to the States.


*****

Page 1